The Western Balkans are rewriting their electricity story. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia have each prepared National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs). Read together, these plans describe a region that seeks cleaner power, stronger regional integration, and modern digital grids, while still relying on hydro dams and lignite mines to maintain the lights. The result is a 2030 vision full of opportunity, yet also fraught with tension. Ambitious GWs of wind and solar stand alongside stubborn coal plants, and modern flexibility tools lag behind.
- Western Balkans aim to add roughly 10 GW of wind and solar capacity by 2030 compared with today
- Grid investment volumes will need to match the ambition of new RES and prosumers
- Digitalization is politically endorsed but still operationally underspecified
- Immediate focus on decarbonization is on the electricity supply, rather than end-use
- Coal remains deeply embedded in security of supply planning
From lignite and hydro to a more renewable mix
Across the six NECPs, the headline is clear. Solar and wind are no longer side projects. They are core to the regional electricity strategy.
Bosnia and Herzegovina plans to add 850 megawatts (MW) of utility-scale solar, 92 MW of industrial solar for self-consumption, and 500 MW of prosumer rooftop solar by 2030, alongside 600 MW of new wind farms. Kosovo’s “With Additional Measures” scenario adds approximately 600 MW of wind and 700 MW of solar, bringing wind and solar to roughly 40% of gross final electricity consumption in 2030.
Albania’s NECP outlines a project pipeline centered on competitive auctions. The Karavasta solar plant (140 MW), Spitalla solar plant (100 MW), and Lezhë wind project (150 MW) are already operational, with an additional 220 MW of wind and annual additions of small hydropower planned up to 2028. Montenegro projects around 870 MW of renewable capacity in 2030, still dominated by large hydroelectric projects, but with additional wind and solar energy sources on top.
Serbia and North Macedonia build their strategies on RES shares rather than listing individual projects. Serbia’s NECP projects a substantial decline in lignite’s share of generation by 2030 (-25% compared to 2021), accompanied by a significant expansion of wind and solar (around 3 GW), with total renewables expected to reach around 6 GW of installed capacity by the end of the decade.
North Macedonia models high RES electricity shares combined with new auctioned solar and wind, backed by hydropower and the planned Chebren pumped storage plant.
Taken together, the Western Balkans aim to add roughly 10 GW of wind and solar capacity by 2030 compared with today. In many scenarios, renewables provide 60–70 percent of gross final electricity consumption at the regional level, although a significant portion of this is attributed to legacy hydro.
Storage and flexibility: the missing megawatts
High renewables shares are only sustainable if the system can flex. Here, the picture is more fragile.
On the hydro side, a set of flagship pumped storage projects features prominently. Chebren in North Macedonia, Bistrica in Serbia, and pumped storage plans in Bosnia and Herzegovina (420 MW) are designed to absorb surplus solar and wind and stabilise the regional system.
Kosovo’s NECP explicitly models 170 MW batteries in the power mix, showing trajectories for batteries alongside hydro, wind, solar, and lignite, and projects that net electricity imports will fall below 1% after 2030 in its WAM scenario. Other countries, especially Montenegro and Serbia, describe battery energy storage systems as pilot projects or future flexibility options, rather than with clear 2030 capacity targets.
Demand response and market-based flexibility are still emerging. Serbia is the most explicit, with measures for smart meter rollout, dynamic tariffs, and data platforms, all of which are backed by an allocated budget. Elsewhere, NECPs emphasize regional markets and interconnections as the main “storage asset.” The gap between planned renewables and concrete flexibility resources is one of the central risk factors. If storage and demand response lag, curtailment and congestion will become more frequent, undermining investor confidence and security of supply.
Prosumers and energy communities: big narrative, modest numbers
Every Western Balkan NECP talks about prosumers and energy communities. They are politically attractive and align well with EU directives. Yet the numbers differ sharply.
Bosnia and Herzegovina stands out with a clear 500 MW target for prosumer solar by 2030, as well as 92 MW of industrial solar for its own use. Serbia uses its market integration measures to frame prosumers as key actors, and internal modelling suggests a similar order of magnitude, around 500 MW of rooftop solar by 2030.
Montenegro already has around 70 MW of prosumer capacity connected and plans to expand this through net metering and investment incentives, although its NECP does not specify a strict 2030 target. Albania embeds prosumers into its auction and support schemes, while Kosovo and North Macedonia focus on setting the legal framework and one-stop shops.
Soft measures across the region include simplified permitting, standardised contracts, net metering or net billing regimes, and subsidies for rooftop systems. For investors and regulators, this signals a growing distributed generation segment that will impact low-voltage grid planning; however, the scale planned up to 2030 remains modest compared to the technical potential.
Grids and interconnections: the regional backbone
The Western Balkans’ electricity vision depends heavily on high-voltage cooperation.
Montenegro has nine interconnection lines with a total installed capacity of 5,542 MW and a 600 MW high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cable to Italy. Its interconnection level already exceeds the EU 2030 target. Kosovo’s NECP reports strong net transfer capacity with neighbors and projects that net imports will fall as its RES fleet grows.
Serbia sits at the center, connected to all its neighbors and upgrading 400 kV lines as part of the broader Trans-Balkan corridor. Albania and North Macedonia are strengthening their 400 kV backbones and cross-border links as they prepare for larger flows and market coupling.
At the distribution level, the focus is on loss reduction and digitalisation. Albania aims to reduce distribution losses from 23.7% in 2020 to 12% by 2030, supported by metering and network upgrades. Kosovo and North Macedonia are experiencing similar trends, with losses trending toward single digits. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia all combine network rehabilitation, smart metering, and automation, although targets are often embedded in narrative rather than summarised in a single figure. The direction is correct, but grid investment volumes will need to match the ambition of new RES and prosumers. For regulators and DSOs, this will be one of the most severe balancing acts of the 2020s.
Smart meters and digital platforms: the nervous system
Advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) and digital platforms form the nervous system of the future power system. NECPs show broad agreement that smart metering should be mainstream by 2030, but concrete commitments vary.
Serbia again is the most detailed. Its measures for smart metering, market and network data management, and dynamic tariffs come with explicit budgets and implementation responsibilities. Albania’s NECP ties metering and distribution network digitalization to its measures for loss reduction and prosumer support.
North Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina each include AMI and grid digitalization as enabling measures, along with improved forecasting, cybersecurity, and market platforms. None, however, publishes a simple “X percent of customers with smart meters by 2030” target in the visible sections.
For investors, this means digitalization is politically endorsed but still operationally underspecified. Project pipelines for data hubs, flexibility platforms, and grid IT will be crucial in closing that gap.
Transport and heating: still early in the electrification
While the electricity sector is decarbonizing, transport and heating are lagging behind in electrification.
In transportation, Albania plans to install 200–300 charging towers by 2025 and aims for an approximately 10 percent share of electricity in transport final energy by 2030, supplemented by biofuels. Montenegro sets a bolder vision, aiming for at least 35,000 electric cars and about 550 public chargers (50 fast, 500 slow) by 2030, supported by incentives and tax reductions. Serbia projects roughly 44,800 electric vehicles by 2030 and includes measures to develop charging infrastructure.
Bosnia and Herzegovina focuses primarily on biofuels, increasing their use in road transport from 7.2 ktoe in 2022 to 20.77 ktoe in 2030, while also increasing the use of renewable electricity in cars and rail. North Macedonia combines financial support for transport electrification with RES in transport targets.
In heating, biomass still dominates. Bosnia and Herzegovina projects more than 1,300 ktoe of biomass in 2030 and only 5.37 ktoe of heat from heat pumps, plus 3.71 ktoe of electricity from biomass cogeneration. Montenegro acknowledges that climate change will reduce hydroelectric output and promotes deep building renovation, where heat pumps are expected to replace direct electricity use, but without specifying headline 2030 volumes.
North Macedonia’s measures for solar thermal collectors and heat pumps quantify primary energy savings and emissions cuts, but not the number of installed devices. Albania, Kosovo, and Serbia refer to modernizing district heating and supporting RES heating technologies, with limited numeric detail.
For policymakers and investors, this means that the immediate focus on decarbonization is on electricity supply, rather than end-use. There is a real risk that electric transport and heating will remain niche by 2030 unless current measures are significantly scaled up.
Coal, lignite, and the politics of phase-out
The Western Balkans’ 2030 electricity vision cannot be understood without coal and lignite.
Kosovo’s WAM scenario still projects lignite accounting for 54.5 percent of gross final electricity in 2030, declining to 27.4 percent in 2040. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s renewable electricity share is projected to reach approximately 68 percent by 2030, accounting for roughly one-third of the country’s generation, with the majority coming from fossil fuels, primarily coal.
Serbia’s NECP foresees a roughly 25 percent reduction in lignite’s share of electricity generation compared with 2021, but still relies on its existing baseload fleet alongside new gas and RES. Montenegro plans to maintain Pljevlja’s operation and anticipates a rise in net electricity import shares from 21 percent in 2019 to 47 percent by 2030, as demand increases and hydroelectric output declines.
No coal-using country in the region commits to a hard coal phase-out before 2030. Instead, NECPs focus on retrofits, emission reductions, and gradual reductions in operating hours. The concept of a just transition is mentioned, but funding and detailed programs are still lacking.
For investors and regulators, this creates a double-edged signal. On one side, there is clear growth in renewables. On the other hand, coal remains deeply embedded in security of supply planning.
Turning the vision into reality
Read individually, the NECPs of the Western Balkans tell six national stories of modernization and EU alignment. Read together, they reveal a shared story.
First, the region will still be in the midst of transition in 2030. Renewables will become increasingly important, but hydro and lignite will continue to be the backbone in several systems. Imports will act as a safety valve when hydro underperforms or coal units are offline, as Montenegro’s projected import share shows.
Second, flexibility is the weak link. For around 10 GW of new wind and solar, the number of firmly committed pumped storage and battery projects is limited. Demand response and digital platforms are mainly at the pilot or concept stage. Without rapid progress, grid bottlenecks and curtailment could slow down the transition.
Third, decarbonization is uneven across sectors. Electricity supply is advancing fastest. Transport and heating are progressing, with biofuels and biomass assuming a larger role than electric vehicles and heat pumps. The region risks building a greener power mix that is underused in end-use sectors.
Fourth, digitalisation is acknowledged but under-specified. Smart meters, data hubs, and automation will decide how much value can be captured from RES, prosumers, and flexibility markets. Only a few NECPs really quantify those investments.
The Western Balkans’ electricity vision for 2030 is grounded in concrete projects, e.g., Karavasta solar and Chebren pumped storage, as well as prosumer programs and planned EV charging networks. The region is aligning with EU rules, connecting its markets and building the infrastructure needed for a low-carbon future.
To turn this vision into reality, three priorities stand out.
First, align renewables with flexibility. Storage projects, demand response frameworks, and redispatch rules require fast-tracking to enable new wind and solar energy sources to operate efficiently and reliably.
Second, move from coal management to coal transition. More apparent timelines, transition packages, and investment plans for coal regions can reduce social risk and provide investors with a predictable path.
Third, bring digitalisation, transport, and heating up to speed. Smart meters, data platforms, EV charging, and heat pumps are no longer optional add-ons. They are essential for maximizing the benefits of cleaner electricity.
Suppose policymakers, regulators, and investors treat the NECPs as living roadmaps that should be updated, the Western Balkans can transition from a hydro- and lignite-based system to a flexible, renewable regional power market that is resilient, investable, and socially equitable.
Individual country electricity visions for 2030